Gas or Import - Generation Mix - Reduction Mix

                                                             

The Polish economy and, in particular, the energy sector are currently facing major challenges and choices related to the Energy and Climate Package proposed by the European Union. A significant reduction of carbon dioxide emissions by means of extensive regulation is planned, as part of which emission allowances are to be distributed through an auctioning system.

Entry into force of the proposed changes will lead to serious limitations in energy production by carbon-intensive and emission-intensive economies such as those of Estonia, Germany and Poland. Production will be possible not for entities in possession of power plants, but for entities rich enough to buy emission allowances at auction. It is already clear that demand for such allowances will exceed the number of them that is emitted, and that one will have to pay in order to come into possession of emission rights. In addition, there is concern that countries with weaker economies and yet higher emission needs will lose at auction against stronger players, and that this will - in the long term - result in them having to pay high penalties or discontinue activities leading to emissions.  It could therefore be the case that the inability to produce that may arise out of the aforementioned situation will force us to seek new sources of energy or import it from  areas that are not encompassed by the Emissions Trading Scheme, unless of course such activity is in the future prohibited by the European Union.

                         

A possible solution for our economy, which has thus far been coal-dependent,  lies in construction of a nuclear power plant. Such an investment would, however, take many years and will therefore not protect us against possible skyrocketing of electricity prices in the short term. Increasing production of energy from renewable sources to such an extent as to allow overall demand to be met also seems to be both difficult and costly. In this situation, a possible solution may be electricity generation with the use of gas, which is much less emission-intensive than coal and therefore automatically cheaper, as it does not require buying large volumes of emission allowances. We cannot rule out the possibility that entry into force of the third Energy and Climate Package may also force us to make a difficult and important choice: gas or import? Numerous factors suggest that not much time is left for taking concrete activities in this respect.

                                         

Until now, emission-related issues have been discussed primarily by representatives of the energy sector. This time, however, the organisers would like to initiate cooperation between two sectors: the gas and electricity sectors.  

The meeting will take the form of a discussion based on brief key note speeches by invited guests.